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Southeast Climate Consortium
Approach
The Southeast Climate Consortium has
developed an adopted some common methodologies in our approach to
identify climate variability patterns in temperature and precipitation
associated with ENSO events and the assessment of related agricultural
impacts.
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ENSO, or the El Niño
Southern Oscillation, has three phases: a warm, or El Niño,
phase; a cold, or La Niña, phase; and a neutral phase. Based
upon historical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the
equatorial Pacific Ocean, we can designate each year as a warm, cold,
or neutral phase event. Research has shown the different phases of ENSO
to have unique, quantifiable impacts on the Southeast United States and
the rest of the world. We apply this research, using historical climate
data, to understand these impacts and identify areas where they can be
expected.
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We utilize nested, coupled, regional
climate models to explore the process of using an ENSO forecast system
to provide tailored output for various socioeconomic sectors in small
regions, primarily the Southeast United States and Southeast South
America. However, these models only have skill in predictions of
seasonal climate anomalies; further work is needed to resolve the
complete spectrum of anomalous climatic behavior required for
agricultural and climate study purposes. Thus, additional methods of
"downscaling" the model results are utilized to produce worthwhile
results.
Additional research at the Southeast
Climate Consortium includes the integration of weather generators with
climate models; the assessment of agricultural impact through the
analysis of historical crop yields and simulated yield potentials;
understanding forestry risk and its minimization; water quality
assessment and policy analysis; and the development of crop management
optimization toolkits and programs to explore optimal management
options under different ENSO conditions and optimization criteria.
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